I know it's early but we can get some incentive from the recent promotion news.
Rick, Carl, and Michonne-Alive
I think the first half will focus on clearing the prison, fixing it up, developing characters, and just doing all of the "Calm Before" stuff. Meanwhile, the Governor spends the half season trying to rally survivors to help him and takes refuge at the national guard armory. At the end of the mid-season finale, The Governor has his tank and arrives at the prison. Some of the Woodburians get killed killed in the opening attack while Rick and few others get injured. Hershel, Carol, Beth, Tyreese, maybe some Woodburians and Sasha decide to leave. Glenn gets executed in front of the prison and Maggie has "grief sex" with Rick. When the assault happens, Maggie has Judith and gets killed. Rick stays behind to try and save people while Carl runs away. Daryl kills the Governor and gets Rick before he gets killed. Rick, Carl, and Daryl look back to see the prison destroyed just as Michonne comes out of the forest to stand with them.